Britannia (BRIT) Q1 quantity/worth development (+1%/-0.5% y-o-y; two-year CAGRs +11%/+12%) was a lot above our forecast and the Bloomberg consensus estimate (-7% y-o-y) regardless of a excessive base. Whereas there was no proof of any improve in consumption or pantry up-stocking in Q1, and with its direct attain impacted (2.1mn in Q122 vs 2.4mn retailers in Q421), we consider robust gross sales efficiency would have been aided by wholesale channel push which will not be recurring, in our view. Additionally, Q1 would have seen some pipeline filling (This autumn gross sales impacted) attributable to ERP improve to S4/HANA.
BRIT talked about that front-end gross sales GTM is now again to c.90% restoration, and sees steady demand tendencies in July. It has a prepared pipeline of latest product launches because it awaits regular demand, and launched new subcategory of ‘Potazos’ in potato wafers. On-line gross sales contribution is at c.2% at the moment (vs 10% for HUVR (Purchase), 9% for MRCO (Purchase), 6.5% for NEST (Purchase), 5% for HMN) and BRIT administration indicated it might doubtlessly attain 5%. ICDs to group corporations considerably declined to c.Rs 4.7 bn (vs Rs 7.9 bn in March-21).
Margin strain to proceed as BRIT cautious on taking worth will increase: GPMs declined by 300bp y-o-y to 38.7%, decrease than our forecast of -140bp y-o-y, attributable to important enter value inflation in fat (RPO c.+50% y-o-y), crude (c.+117% y-o-y) and milk (c.+13% y-o-y), and better promotions to help launches. BRIT indicated that given the comparatively weak demand surroundings, it’s cautious with worth will increase. We count on pricing actions to come back with a lag and to proceed to strain GPMs.
OPMs declined by 470bp y-o-y to 16.3%, beneath our/consensus estimates of -405bp/-380bp y-o-y, attributable to normalisation in A&P value. We count on A&P prices to stay elevated to help new launches, whereas value efficiencies from the not too long ago applied digital transformation platform (manufacturing unit productiveness, direct dispatches, decrease wastage) might cushion some affect on margins. Nevertheless, BRIT indicated that FY22 OPMs will doubtless be decrease y-o-y.
We decrease FY22F/23F EPS by 3-4% to consider margin strain and delayed worth will increase. We preserve our Impartial ranking with FY21-24F EPS CAGR of seven% (one of many lowest in our protection).
Keep Impartial with TP of Rs 4,000; BRIT trades at 39x Sep-23F EPS.
We roll over valuation to Sep-23F EPS (from Mar-23F) and worth BRIT at a P/E of 45x (unchanged), at a c.5% low cost to its previous three-year common buying and selling a number of, implying a TP of Rs 4,000 (unchanged).