Following Afghanistan Defeat: Can EU Win Own ‘Independence’ from the US?

By Ramzy Baroud

Instantly, the thought put forth by French President, Emmanuel Macron, late final 12 months doesn’t appear so far-fetched or untenable in spite of everything. Following the US-NATO hurried withdrawal from Afghanistan, European international locations are actually compelled to think about the as soon as unthinkable:  a gradual dismantling from US dominance.

When, on September 29, 2020, Macron uttered these phrases: “We, some international locations greater than others, gave up on our strategic independence by relying an excessive amount of on American weapons techniques”, the context of this assertion had little to do with Afghanistan. As an alternative, Europe was indignant on the bullying ways utilized by former US President Donald Trump and sought alternate options to US management. The latter has handled NATO – really, all of Europe – with such disdain, that it has compelled America’s closest allies to rethink their overseas coverage outlook and world army technique altogether.

Even the appearance of US President Joe Biden and his assurances to Europe that “America is again” did little to reassure European international locations, which worry, justifiably, that US political instability might exist lengthy after Biden’s time period in workplace expires.

The chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan – with out NATO members even being consulted or thought of because the US signed and enacted a withdrawal settlement with the Taliban beginning in July 2020 – has satisfied Europe that, regardless of the defeat of Trump, Washington has basically remained the identical: a self-centered ‘ally’.

Now that the US and NATO have formally left Afghanistan, a political debate in Europe is raging on many political platforms. The strongest indicators that Europe is able to proceed with an unbiased overseas coverage agenda and European-centered army technique turned evident within the EU Protection Ministers’ assembly in Ljubljana, Slovenia.

Able that’s more and more representing a wider EU stance, the Excessive Consultant of the European Union for Overseas Affairs and Safety Coverage, Josep Borrell Fontelles, articulated the Bloc’s prevailing sentiment: “The expertise from Afghanistan has proven that our incapacity to reply comes at a value. The EU should subsequently strengthen its strategic autonomy by creating the primary entry drive able to guaranteeing stability within the EU’s neighborhood.”

Regardless of assurances that this ‘first entry drive’ is not going to characterize an alternative choice to the North Atlantic Treaty Group (NATO), however relatively ‘complement’ its function, likelihood is this new military will function a stepping stone for Europe’s coveted independence from the US overseas coverage agenda.

Simply marvel at these statements by high European, together with British, officers and analysts to understand the disaster underway in NATO. Keep in mind that 51 NATO members and companion international locations had rushed to help the US invasion of Afghanistan in October 2001, following the invocation of the common-defense clause, Article 5.

“No one requested us whether or not it was a good suggestion to go away that nation in such … a means,” Johann Wadephul, a deputy caucus chief for German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats, mentioned, as regards to the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the absence of any coordination with Washington’s NATO allies.

Former British Prime Minister, Theresa Could, questioned all the pieces, together with Europe’s blind allegiance to the US: “Was our intelligence actually so poor? Was our understanding of the Afghan authorities so weak? Was our information on the bottom so insufficient? Or did we simply assume we needed to comply with the US and on a wing and a prayer it might be all proper on the night time?”

Katharina Emschermann, the deputy director of the respected Berlin-based Heart for Worldwide Safety on the Hertie College, appeared to talk for a lot of European analysts when she mentioned: “A part of the discord that we’re seeing now might be additionally rooted within the sense of unease about how issues are going to go on sooner or later.”

This ‘unease’ refers to Europe’s conventional overseas coverage, which has been hostage to post-WWII Trans-Atlantic European American partnership. Nevertheless, Europe itself is altering, along with the world round it. Furthermore, the Chinese language economic system has grown tremendously lately. As of final 12 months, it was Beijing, not Washington, that served the crucial function of being the EU’s largest commerce companion.

Not solely has Chinese language financial – thus, political and army – clout grew exponentially, Europe’s share of the worldwide economic system has shrunk considerably, and never solely due to the Brexit ordeal. In keeping with NBC information, citing the British accounting agency PwC, “in 1960, the international locations that may kind the E.U. made up a 3rd of the worldwide economic system. By 2050, the bloc is projected to account for simply 9 %”.

The rising realization amongst European international locations that they have to engineer an eventual break-up from the US is rooted in respectable fears that the EU’s curiosity is hardly a high American precedence. Therefore, many European international locations proceed to withstand Washington’s ultimatums relating to China.

It was additionally Macron, whereas elaborating on the idea of the European military, who rejected the US China agenda. “We can’t settle for to reside in a bipolar world made up of the US and China,” he mentioned.

Macron’s as soon as ‘controversial’ view is now mainstream pondering in Europe, particularly as many EU policy-makers really feel disowned, if not betrayed, by the US in Afghanistan. If this trajectory of distrust continues, step one in direction of the institution of a European military might, within the close to future, develop into an actuality.

– Ramzy Baroud is a journalist and the Editor of The Palestine Chronicle. He’s the creator of 5 books. His newest is “These Chains Will Be Damaged: Palestinian Tales of Wrestle and Defiance in Israeli Prisons” (Readability Press). Dr. Baroud is a Non-resident Senior Analysis Fellow on the Heart for Islam and International Affairs (CIGA) and in addition on the Afro-Center East Heart (AMEC). His web site is www.ramzybaroud.web