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Nargis Kassenova is director of the Program on Central Asia on the Davis Middle for Russian and Eurasian Research at Harvard College.
Kazakhstan is attempting to place itself as an open, entrepreneurial nation — one which’s neighbor and helpful companion for President Vladimir Putin’s remoted Russia, but in addition one which isn’t closed off from the remainder of the world.
However because the geopolitical division between Moscow and the West continues to widen, this can definitely to be a tough feat to tug off.
The issue of this activity was on clear show this month, as Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev reassured European Union leaders they may rely on him to assist the 27-nation bloc overcome its power disaster. Nonetheless, simply the following day, a court docket in Novorossiysk — Russia’s Black Sea port — ordered the month-long closure of an oil pipeline coming from Kazakhstan, which sends provides to Europe.
Ostensibly, the shutdown order was in response to violations of oil spill rules. Nonetheless, when Tokayev later instructed the federal government at an pressing Cupboard assembly to prioritize the event of the Trans-Caspian hall, bypassing Russia for Kazakh oil, the court docket revised its choice, substituting the suspension with a nice as a substitute. This reversal has now raised suspicions that the court docket’s actions, in addition to earlier disruptions brought on by harm to the loading services from a storm in March and the seek for World Struggle II mines within the port aquatoria in June, had been politically motivated and a part of a sanctions tit-for-tat between the West and Russia over the battle in Ukraine.
The problem dealing with Tokayev was additionally vividly demonstrated on the St. Petersburg Worldwide Financial Discussion board in June. As the one notable overseas chief to attend the discussion board in particular person, sitting subsequent to Putin was a transparent present of solidarity for Tokayev, however the plenary session itself revealed the pair to be at odds.
Whereas Putin’s Russia is politically and economically closing, the younger Kazakh nation is set to remain open, and this conflict will solely proceed within the weeks and months to come back. Assuming Russia’s “lonely” interval lasts for a number of years, nevertheless, what can Kazakhstan do for itself, Eurasia and the world?
Paradoxically, the 2 nations’ drastically completely different paths are chosen in pursuit of the identical aim — strengthening nationwide sovereignty.
Putin made sovereignty the principle theme of his prolonged speech on the plenary, utilizing the phrase 9 instances. He complained that america and nations of the “golden billion” deal with all of the others as colonies, contemplating them second-rate. And he insisted that Russia ought to handle its sovereignty in a holistic means — defending political sovereignty and nationwide identification, and strengthening financial, monetary, technological self-sufficiency and independence.
Tokayev’s remarks on the occasion had been shorter and fewer emotional. He calmly and politely reaffirmed Kazakhstan’s place of favoring the precept of territorial integrity over the that of self-determination, in addition to the non-recognition of the quasi-state territories of Donetsk and Luhansk. He famous that the desire for self-determination might result in the emergence of a whole bunch new nations, leading to chaos — which could possibly be seen as a well mannered invitation for Russian elites to think about the results of such a growth for his or her multiethnic nation.
Nonetheless, Tokayev’s different remarks, much less observed by worldwide audiences, are additionally essential for additional understanding the Kazakh political elite’s idea of sovereignty and their ongoing divergence with Russia. He spoke of worldwide cooperation and making the nation engaging for funding. He pressured the impossibility and futility of makes an attempt to be self-sufficient. And he additionally famous the significance of ongoing reforms in Kazakhstan, geared toward making the system extra inclusive and simply, and the nation extra secure and succesful to compete.
So, what can come of this divergence?
As Kazakhstan tries to handle relations with Russia, balancing its openness with its “strategic ally’s” anti-Western isolationism, tensions appear inevitable. And the dangers for the nation are significantly excessive.
Within the quick future, strict compliance with sanctions and the pursuit of stronger relations with the West might immediate Moscow’s irritation and even wrath. However makes an attempt to accommodate Russian pursuits might additionally create the bottom for secondary sanctions.
Within the medium and long term, a brooding and impoverished Russia that’s going by means of tough instances — because of placing itself in a geopolitical entice — isn’t excellent news for the area both. The damaging influence is more likely to be multifaceted and in the end exhausting to foretell.
At current, Kazakhstan is targeted on containing the harm by recalibrating its overseas coverage. It’s additionally very busy exploring new alternatives which are opening up. In St. Petersburg, for instance, Tokayev mentioned the Eurasian Financial Union (EEU) ought to undertake a extra proactive and versatile commerce coverage towards Asian and Center Japanese markets, and that Kazakhstan might play the position of a buffer market on this new setting. He additionally needs to develop higher linkages between the EEU and China’s Belt and Street Initiative too.
As could be seen, Kazakhstan is attempting to profit from the reorientation of commerce routes, however in a means that Russia sees profit too. It’s positioning itself as an open entrepreneurial service provider nation, neighbor and helpful companion.
For this balancing act to work, nevertheless, the nation wants a buy-in from all key events, which isn’t going to be straightforward — though, if goodwill is proven all spherical, it’s nonetheless not unimaginable.
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