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Oksana Antonenko is a director for World Threat Evaluation at Management Dangers and a worldwide coverage fellow on the Kennan Institute.
Vacation seasons are sometimes haunted by sudden crises, and 2022 has proved no exception.
Kazakhstan — the energy-rich nation positioned on the heart of Eurasia — has been plunged into a serious political disaster, and seen President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev flip to Russia to assist him quell widespread protests, restore order and consolidate his energy.
The Collective Safety Treaty Group (CSTO), a Russia-dominated however nominally multilateral safety alliance of six former Soviet states, speedily accepted a peacekeeping mission to Kazakhstan — the primary such intervention to help a member with resolving a home political disaster, setting a really harmful precedent. And this deployment can have main geopolitical implications not just for Kazakhstan however for Central Asia as a complete, bringing an extended interval of stability to a sudden and unexpected finish.
For years, the area — and Kazakhstan particularly — was thought of remarkably secure regardless of their authoritarian leaders, significantly in comparison with post-Soviet Japanese Europe or the South Caucasus, the place geopolitical battles rage with elevated frequency.
Central Asia has to this point survived a much-feared transition of energy in Uzbekistan, a number of revolutions in Kyrgyzstan, and the US’ withdrawal from Afghanistan, all with out its uniquely balanced geopolitical order being undermined. It was the one space the place Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Iran, the EU and the U.S. have been capable of keep away from zero-sum pondering, and even handle some cooperation — till now.
Using the Russian navy to prop up a regime in Kazakhstan that has misplaced its legitimacy within the eyes of a lot of its residents implies that the nation will now not be capable of preserve its long-standing multivector diplomacy, establishing versatile and optimistic relations of their engagement with competing international actors. Kazakhstan and its overseas coverage will now face larger assertiveness and heightened expectations from Moscow, which can undoubtedly constrain its relations with the West and with China.
There is no such thing as a instance of Russian peacekeepers being deployed within the post-Soviet area with out geopolitical preconditions. And it is extremely possible that not less than a few of these closely armed troops — a lot of whom have been beforehand deployed on Russian operations in South Ossetia, Syria and Crimea — will now be stationed in Kazakhstan on a long-term foundation.
Kazakhstan’s political disaster and Russia’s navy involvement can even empower nationalists in Moscow who search larger autonomy for what was once largely Russian-speaking northern areas of Kazakhstan. These voices are strident on Russian social media, and even amongst senior MPs within the Duma — the decrease home of Russia’s parliament. With many Kazakhs resenting Russian navy involvement, stress between the ethnic Russian and Kazakh populations is prone to improve, making Russian help for autonomy extra possible.
By staying out of the disaster, apart from issuing statements of concern, the U.S. and the EU have signaled that their ambitions and affect in Central Asia are restricted. And it will likely be arduous for the West to take care of its privileged partnership with Kazakhstan following a bloody crackdown on widespread protests.
The flare-up additionally comes at a delicate time in Russia’s relationship with the West, as Washington and Moscow are about to begin talks on Russian proposals for safety ensures in opposition to NATO enlargement. Russia’s muscle flexing in Eurasia — amid yet one more instance of Western nonaction — could add credence to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s calls for.
However the geopolitical fallout could go nicely past new sources of stress between Russia and the West. It might additionally undermine the fragile Sino-Russian steadiness in Central Asia.
Whereas Beijing — which just lately took over the chairmanship of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, one other regional financial and safety establishment — has to this point stayed out of the present disaster, Moscow selected to behave. Russia could now search to transform its enhanced safety clout into financial energy, growing its affect over Kazakhstan’s huge oil and gasoline assets, the place China is a serious investor and shopper — a relationship that Russia has lengthy eyed with concern.
Curiously, Putin’s navy ambitions are unlikely to repay at dwelling, nevertheless. Opinion polls point out that Russians are more and more hostile to new navy interventions. And their very own calls for for financial alternative and larger accountability from corrupt officers are usually not that dissimilar to people who are being silenced on the streets of Kazakhstan proper now.
With navy operations within the South Caucasus, Belarus and now Kazakhstan, in addition to the persevering with navy risk to Ukraine, Russia is clearly tightening its grip on the post-Soviet area at the price of worsening relations with the West, China and the populations of its former empire. And even when it avoids following Belarus’ destiny, Kazakhstan’s drift away from the West won’t be reversed for years to come back.
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