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Biden to designate Qatar main non-Nato ally, as Washington appears to be like for assistance on vitality safety
Sean Mathews
Mon, 01/31/2022 – 18:08
President Joe Biden mentioned on Monday that he plans to designate Qatar a significant non-Nato ally, underscoring the essential function the US has come to see the Gulf state enjoying as Washington appears to be like for assist addressing challenges starting from Afghanistan to a possible shortfall in Europe’s fuel provides, ought to Russia invade Ukraine.
“The transfer to designate Qatar as a significant non-Nato ally signifies a lot nearer cooperation and recognition of deepening ties between Doha and Washington,” Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a fellow for the Center East at Rice College’s Baker Institute for Public Coverage, informed Center East Eye
The Qatari chief arrives in Washington after his nation’s profile has risen, following the important thing function it performed in evacuating US residents, allies and hundreds of Afghans through the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan final yr. It has since gone on to grow to be the US diplomatic consultant within the Taliban-ruled nation.
Now the tiny Gulf kingdom of three million, which is likely one of the world’s prime producers of liquefied pure fuel (LNG), finds itself positioned to play one other function on the worldwide stage.
‘The Qataris perceive the fuel market very properly’
– Nikos Tsafos, Centre for Strategic and Worldwide Research
Western officers are involved that Russia, which generally gives 40 % of Europe’s pure fuel, could constrict provides within the occasion it invades Ukraine, delivering a extreme blow to European companies and households on the peak of winter.
A senior US administration official mentioned on Sunday that Biden would seek the advice of together with his Qatari counterpart on “guaranteeing the soundness of worldwide vitality provides”, and that conversations concerning LNG would “determine within the combine” of Monday’s go to.
“Actually throughout the spectrum, the Qataris need to showcase that they behave in ways in which strengthen US pursuits,” Ulrichsen added.
‘Any molecule issues’
Observers have been eager to notice how Tamim’s go to to the White Home marks a reversal of fortunes for his nation, following the tip of an almost 43-month blockade towards Qatar by its Arab neighbours.
However Tamim’s arrival additionally speaks to the challenges the administration has confronted. Biden entered workplace promising to stem the rise of China and enact the Inexperienced New Deal. Now in his first assembly with a Gulf chief since taking workplace, he’s confronting the age-old challenge of vitality safety within the Center East.
“It’s realpolitik,” Karen Dourian, a contributing editor with the Center East Financial Survey (MEES), informed MEE. “The scenario has modified to the extent that Biden has even needed to name on Opec to supply extra oil.”
“It is the fact of life that renewable vitality, whilst you diversify and accommodate renewable fuels, is just not dependable to supply 24-hour electrical energy”.
‘The Qataris are properly positioned to fulfill Europe’s demand in the event that they do diversify from Russia’
– Karen Dourian, Center East Financial Survey
Qatar has warned that its capability to extend provide to Europe is restricted by its commitments to long-term contracts, principally with Asian international locations. “We’re maxed out,” Saad al-Kaabi, minister of state for vitality affairs, mentioned even earlier than the disaster in Ukraine erupted.
Analysts say one benefit is that the nation’s fuel exports to Asia are likely to peak in January, which may make the re-routing of some provides potential. “At this level, any molecule issues,” Nikos Tsafos, an vitality specialist on the Centre for Strategic and Worldwide Research (CSIS), informed MEE.
Whereas Europe would possibly catch a reprieve from the extra provide, Tsafos says that in a severe disaster the continent is probably going going to wish way more than Qatar can supply.
He provides that for Qatar, the second-largest producer of LNG after the US, enterprise calculations will proceed to issue into the combo. “The Qataris perceive the fuel market very properly, so I see the diplomatic overtures from america as a lubricant moderately than a driver.”
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The primary patrons of Qatar’s LNG are Japan, South Korea and India, all distinguished US allies within the area which have locked in fuel with long-term contracts.
Robert Mogielnicki, a senior resident scholar on the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, mentioned the strain from international provide constraints means Qatar doesn’t have the flexibility to “single-handedly alleviate” the vitality crunch.
“Any efforts to assist worst-case state of affairs vitality wants of European international locations would rely on collaboration with Asian companions.”
‘Properly-placed Qataris’
The concentrate on vitality safety comes at a fortuitous time for Qatar, because it pushes forward with plans to broaden its North Discipline, the world’s largest liquefied pure fuel mission.
The enlargement will value roughly $30bn and goals to spice up the nation’s LNG output by 40 % a yr by 2026. “Pure fuel demand goes to rise, even with the vitality transition,” Dourian mentioned.
“The Qataris are well-placed to fulfill Europe’s demand in the event that they do diversify from Russia. They’ve the tanker fleet, manufacturing prices are low, and they’re making investments to extend capability”.
It stays to be seen, nevertheless, if the disaster in Ukraine will probably be sufficient to shift Europe’s dependence on Russia.
The Trump administration had lengthy pushed Germany, the continent’s industrial powerhouse and largest LNG client, to construct an import facility that will enable shipments of fuel from the US and Qatar. These plans have been delayed and withered with the arrival of the Biden administration.
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Environmental issues prompted the French authorities to ask energy group Engie in October 2020 to carry off on signing a multibillion-dollar deal for US liquefied pure fuel over issues in regards to the deal’s environmental impression.
Requested whether or not he noticed the present disaster with Russia resulting in a long-term shift within the European international locations’ vitality insurance policies, Tsafos from CSIS, was sceptical.
He additionally questioned whether or not the Biden administration would look to advertise Qatari fuel in Europe over the long run. “I’m not positive this administration would push for particular measures like asking Europe to signal LNG contracts or construct new LNG infrastructure.”
Will Qatar get its drones?
Whereas Qatar has drawn criticism for its overseas coverage from some in Washington, tensions have cooled lately following the rapprochement between Doha and its Gulf neighbours.
Qatar has additionally been seen as a possible companion for the US in coping with Iran, which the US and European powers are locked in negotiations with over a return to the 2015 nuclear deal.
The nation’s International Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani arrived in Washington late final week, following a collection of conferences in Tehran with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and International Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.
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Qatar can also be the placement of the large Al Udeid base, house to round 10,000 US troops and the headquarters of the American Mixed Air Operations Heart.
The announcement by Biden on designating Qatar a significant non-Nato ally locations the nation within the ranks of Bahrain and Kuwait as one of many few Gulf states with the title, giving Qatar preferential entry to US army tools and expertise, free surplus materials, and prioritised cooperation on coaching.
The transfer may assist Doha in its efforts to safe the acquisition of armed drones from the US. The federal government of Qatar has been ready for a response from the US on a request it made greater than a yr in the past to purchase 4 armed MQ-9B Predator drones as a part of an estimated $600m deal to spice up their defensive capabilities.
The sale has confronted some resistance in Washington, with these involved saying it may upset the stability of energy with different regional allies just like the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
In a letter despatched to Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken final yr, Republican Congressmen Jack Bergman and Randy Weber additionally raised issues over Qatar’s ties to the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas as a purpose to query the sale.
“Now we have severe issues about Qatar’s want for such drones within the mild of their horrible human rights information, overseas coverage and nationwide safety concerns,” the letter said.
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