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A map of the buffer zone established by the Minsk Protocol in the course of the Donbass conflict between Ukraine and the pro-Russian separatists. Dombask area in inexperienced. © Goran tek-en/Wikimedia.org
February 20 – Institute for the Examine of Struggle, Russia Group
Russia will doubtless assault Ukraine the week of February 21, 2022. The Kremlin has deployed enough army forces and set informational circumstances to conduct offensive operations together with restricted incursions into unoccupied Ukraine, a complete air and missile marketing campaign, and large-scale mechanized drives on Kyiv and different main Ukrainian cities.
This each day artificial product covers key occasions associated to renewed Russian aggression towards Ukraine and replaces ISW’s earlier “Indicators and Thresholds for Russian Navy Operations in Ukraine and/or Belarus,” which we maintained from November 12, 2021, by means of February 17, 2022. That doc is now not up to date.
Key Takeaways February 20
- Kremlin Spokesperson Peskov claimed Ukraine can’t and won’t implement the Minsk II Accords, marking a major change in Kremlin rhetoric that Russia may use as a pretext for additional escalation.
- The Belarusian Protection Minister introduced Russian troops deployed in Belarus will stay within the nation after the conclusion of Russian-Belarusian workouts—enabling an indefinite Russian army presence in Belarus.
- Russia started testing its nuclear early warning system as a part of ongoing workouts meant to discourage any NATO response to Russian actions towards Ukraine.
- French President Emmanuel Macron proposed a renewed ceasefire (unsuccessfully, as of publication) in Donbas in back-to-back telephone calls with Putin and Zelensky.
- The Kremlin intensified its disinformation efforts to generate the false look of a Ukrainian genocide towards Russians in Donbas by means of evacuation efforts and false claims of Ukrainian focusing on of civilians.
- A CBS nationwide safety correspondent claimed the US has intelligence that Russian commanders already acquired direct orders to invade Ukraine, however no US official confirmed the declare.
- Turkish officers decried the additional imposition of sanctions on Russia and shunned condemning Russia’s army buildup to retain its balancing relationship with the Kremlin.
Key Occasions February 19, 2pm EST – February 20, 2pm EST
Navy Occasions
Belarusian Protection Minister Viktor Khrenin introduced Russian forces presently deployed to Belarus will stay there indefinitely throughout a press briefing concerning the conclusion of joint Russian-Belarusian “Union Resolve 2022” workouts on February 20.[1] Khrenin said that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko determined to “proceed testing” Union State forces as a result of “aggravation of the scenario of Donbas.” Khrenin accused NATO and the West of “pumping up” states close to the Union State—referring to Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic States—with weapons, rising their army posture towards the Union State with out superior warning, and prioritizing “offensive means.” Khrenin accused the West of refusing to just accept the Kremlin’s demanded “crimson traces” for the “safety structure of Europe.” Khrenin moreover parroted Russian International Ministry rhetoric concerning the West undermining the “precept of the indivisibility of safety” for the primary time. Khrenin didn’t specify what Russian forces would stay in Belarus. Russian forces will doubtless completely deploy to Belarus, as ISW has beforehand forecasted.[2]
Khrenin moreover outlined the outcomes of the workouts and said that unified fight formations of Russian and Belarusian pilots, mechanized items, tank items, paratroopers, particular forces, missilemen, and artillerymen operated with a excessive stage of cooperation. Joint forces additionally addressed assist points and labored out an efficient logical assist system that enabled an efficient Russian-Belarusian coalition. Khrenin praised using trendy weapons programs and change of army experience and expertise between Russian and Belarusian troops. He thus concluded that “Union Resolve” achieved its meant targets and confirmed the cooperative capabilities of Russian and Belarusian forces within the face of Western strain.
Russia’s ballistic early warning community, the Russian fifteenth Aerospace Particular Forces Military, started command and workers coaching in Moscow on February 20 as a part of ongoing Russian nuclear workouts doubtless meant to discourage a NATO response to any Russian offensive towards Ukraine.[3] Over 800 personnel from command, logistics, armaments, and different unspecified components of the Titov Predominant Take a look at and House Methods Management Middle, 820th Predominant Middle for Missile Assault Warning, and the 821st Predominant Middle for Reconnaissance of State of affairs in House participated within the command and workers coaching. These components comprise Russia’s early warning community towards ballistic missile assaults. These workouts are doubtless a part of the “GROM-2022” nuclear triad workouts that started on February 19.
Russia’s 49th Mixed Arms Military of the Southern Navy District (SMD) continued basic readiness workouts on February 20.[4] Unspecified regiment-sized (over 1,500 personnel) tank, motorized rifle, and artillery components performed company-level workouts on the Nikolo-Alexandrovsky Coaching Floor in Stavropol Krai. The weather performed stay fires with 152mm howitzers, a number of launch rocket programs, and T-72B3 tanks to destroy targets at distances of as much as 4,000 meters. Reconnaissance, unmanned aerial autos (UAV), and sign components of the SMD performed assist duties.
Roughly 10 Russian Black Sea fleet ships, together with the massive touchdown ships “Novocherkassk,” “Saratov,” and “Tsezar Kunikov” handed by means of the Kerch Strait into the Sea of Azov on February 20.[5] Russian Black Sea Fleet anti-submarine and patrol ships patrolled the Kerch Strait earlier than transferring to the Sea of Azov, in line with native sources.[6] Russian authorities issued a NOTAM (Discover to Air Missions) alert over the Sea of Azov for February 21-26.[7]
Russian social media customers noticed unspecified S-300 air protection components in Kursk Oblast and Aleksandrovka, Belgorod Oblast heading in direction of Ukraine on February 19-20.[8] The social media customers noticed at the least 12 autos in Kursk Oblast on February 19 and three in Belgorod Oblast on February 20.
Russian Exercise
The Kremlin intensified the tempo of the mass evacuations of ladies and kids from the Donetsk and Luhansk Folks’s Republics (DNR and LNR) to Russia to generate the looks of a genocide towards Russians in Donbas between February 19 and February 20. Russia’s Emergency Conditions Ministry said that over 53,000 DNR and LNR residents evacuated to Russia as of February 20.[9] The governors of Russia’s Voronezh, Kursk, and Ryazan oblasts declared states of emergency in response to refugee influxes on February 20.[10] Rostov Oblast authorities said that Rostov Oblast is ready to obtain roughly 14,000 refugees on February 20.[11] No less than six trains transported roughly 5,000 DNR and LNR residents to Russia on February 20.[12] The Kremlin doubtless seeks to accentuate its evacuation over the approaching days. A distinguished Russian Duma deputy from Rostov said that 170,000 residents of the DNR and LNR are presently making use of for Russian citizenship with Russian migration companies on February 20.[13] The Kremlin will doubtless use the declare of threats to civilians in Donbas to justify a Russian army deployment to Donbas or different, extra severe army operations towards Ukraine.
Russian Deputy International Minister Sergei Ryabkov claimed on February 20 that Western states are abandoning negotiations with Russia after the Kremlin solely acquired two responses to 37 letters Russian International Minister Sergei Lavrov despatched to OSCE member states on January 28.[14] Lavrov’s unique letters demanded that particular person Group for Safety and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) member states reply to Russian safety calls for individually and never as a bloc, in a Kremlin try and undermine Western unity. Ryabkov claimed that the recipients of the letters are “leaving this dialog in a defiant approach” by not responding to Russian calls for.[15] The European Union and NATO every submitted a collective response to the Kremlin that didn’t capitulate to core Russian calls for on February 10. The Kremlin beforehand said that Moscow wouldn’t settle for a gaggle response and that Moscow requires detailed responses from particular person states.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that Putin believes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “can’t, doesn’t need [to], and won’t” implement the Minsk II Accords in an interview on the Russia 1 TV channel on February 20.[16] Peskov said Ukraine’s solely possibility is to immediately negotiate with Russia’s proxies, the Donetsk and Luhansk Folks’s Republics (DNR and LNR). Peskov denied Ukrainian statements that Moscow has refused to speak with Ukrainian management. Peskov claimed that the Kremlin has requested Kyiv what Ukraine wished to debate and didn’t obtain a response. Peskov moreover said that Western allegations of Russian plans to invade Ukraine have fueled tensions and that each day hypothesis of the date of an invasion “can have detrimental penalties.”[17]
Peskov’s assertion on February 20 is a major change in tone in Kremlin rhetoric about Ukraine’s intent to by no means implement the Minsk II Accords and is the closest the Kremlin has come to formally nullifying the Minsk II Accords. Kremlin messaging up thus far has emphasised that Ukraine seeks to sabotage the Minsk II Accords and has known as on Ukraine to implement the accords, with out explicitly stating that Ukraine “won’t” implement these accords. The Kremlin may use the declare that Ukraine won’t ever implement the Minsk II accords as a pretext for overtly deploying forces to the occupied Donbas
Proxy Exercise
The Donetsk and Luhansk Folks’s Republics (DNR and LNR) escalated their accusations of ongoing Ukrainian plans to assault Donbas on February 20. DNR claims from February 20 emphasised false threats about Ukrainian terrorist assaults towards the DNR. The DNR claimed that it discovered and destroyed explosives caches belonging to Ukrainian sabotage teams, that it apprehended a “terrorist group” that sought to conduct explosive assaults towards important DNR civilian infrastructure, and that it recorded 5 sabotage assault makes an attempt towards the DNR since mid-February on February 20.[18] The DNR reiterated accusations that the West is pushing Ukraine to assault Donbas, claiming that “Kyiv, with the approvals of the Westerners, started implementing the invasion plan for the [DNR’s] territory,” on February 20.[19] LNR claims from February 20 emphasised an accusation that heavy Ukrainian shelling killed two LNR civilians.[20] The Kremlin supported the LNR’s claims about Ukrainian forces killing two LNR civilians; Russia’s Investigative Committee introduced that it could open a felony investigation of “the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ crimes on the territory of Donbas” on February 20.[21] The Kremlin could declare that Ukrainian forces “killed Russian residents in Donbas” as a pretext to justify new Russian army operations towards Ukraine as ISW beforehand forecasted.[22]
Belarusian Exercise
N/A
Ukrainian Exercise
Ukrainian Everlasting Consultant to the Group for Safety and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Yevhenii Tsymbaliuk on February 20 requested a unprecedented assembly of the OSCE Everlasting Committee for February 21.[23] Tsymbaliuk positioned the request for the OSCE to debate Russia’s army buildup close to Ukraine and discover paths for de-escalation.
US Exercise
US officers voiced continued concern Russia will doubtless invade unoccupied Ukraine however maintained {that a} diplomatic path continues to be attainable in press engagements on February 20. Secretary of State Antony Blinken mentioned Russia and Belarus’ persevering with joint army workouts observe the Russian “playbook” of making provocations to justify additional escalations in an interview with CNN.[24] Blinken famous the joint workouts and quite a few false flag operations give “each indication” that Russian invasion plans are already in movement. Blinken and Vice President Kamala Harris underscored united worldwide assist for sweeping sanctions towards Russia ought to an invasion happen, though Harris acknowledged some variations between NATO allies on the parameters of sanctions in a press convention.[25] Blinken and Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby individually reiterated that the US has supplied Putin a number of diplomatic choices and can proceed to peacefully try to discourage and dissuade Russia till an invasion begins, together with Blinken’s deliberate assembly with Russian International Minister Sergey Lavrov on February 24.[26] Blinken clarified that US recognition of Crimea or Jap Ukraine as Russian territories is non-negotiable when requested throughout an interview on CBS’s Face the Nation.[27]
CBS Information nationwide safety correspondent David Martin reported that the US has intelligence that Russian commanders have acquired direct orders to proceed with an invasion of Ukraine on CBS’s Face the Nation on February 20.[28] Martin mentioned Russian commanders on the bottom are making particular plans for the way they might maneuver of their sectors of the battlefield. Martin emphasised that Russian commanders have acquired direct orders and are “doing every thing that American commanders would do as soon as they received the order to proceed.” No US official has publicly confirmed that Russian forces have acquired orders to invade as of February 20.
NATO and EU Exercise
N/A
Different Worldwide Group Exercise
Collective Safety Treaty Group (CSTO) Secretary Common Stanislav Zas mentioned the CSTO may “hypothetically” deploy peacekeepers to Donbas with Ukrainian consent, member state assist, and a United Nations mandate in an interview with Reuters on February 17.[29] Reuters printed the interview with Zas on February 19.[30] Reuters reported that Zas mentioned that the CSTO has 17,000 personnel at “fixed readiness,” a specialised “peacekeeping” pressure of roughly 4,000 personnel and that the CSTO can swiftly deploy the “wanted” variety of personnel to Ukraine instantly. Zas said that solely diplomacy can remedy the Ukraine disaster. The Kremlin could body a future overt Russian deployment to the occupied components of japanese Ukraine as a “CSTO Peacekeeping mission.”
Particular person Western Allies’ Exercise
French President Emmanuel Macron tried to barter a ceasefire in Donbas by means of bilateral calls with Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian President Putin on February 20. Macron and Putin mentioned convening the trilateral contact group among the many Group for Safety and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), Ukraine, and Donetsk and Luhansk Folks’s Republics (DNR and LNR) to supervise a attainable ceasefire in Donbas. Russia beforehand boycotted the 2 most up-to-date OSCE conferences on February 18 and 19.[31] The Kremlin readout said that Putin and Macron additionally agreed to renew dialogue within the Normandy Format on the international ministry- and political advisors- ranges. The Kremlin could decelerate or later refuse to pursue a ceasefire if it assesses the negotiations as detrimental to its calculus, nevertheless. The Kremlin criticized NATO and Ukraine for pursuing a army resolution, refusing to implement the Minsk II Accords, and claimed that Ukraine’s “intensifying shelling” necessitated civilian evacuations from the DNR and LNR to Russia. The French readout of Macron’s name with Zelensky said Macron praised Ukraine’s restraint and that Zelensky reiterated his dedication to respect the ceasefire by not reacting to Russian proxy provocations. Zelensky’s workplace didn’t problem a readout of the decision with Macron as of February 20 at 3:30 EST.
Turkish officers urged diplomatic talks and de-escalation on Ukraine as an alternative of sanctions towards Russia in a number of statements on February 19-20.[32] Turkish Presidential Spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin said that extra sanctions towards Russia would undermine or delay a diplomatic resolution in an interview with German newspaper Die Welt on February 19.[33] Kalin criticized Russian President Vladimir Putin for in search of to redraw Russia‘s borders however urged states to take heed to Russia and pursue mutual diplomacy, even when they don’t fulfill Russian calls for. Kalin additionally criticized Western and Russian statements for exacerbating tensions and really helpful a versatile diplomatic method—citing Turkey’s present relations with Russia regardless of disagreements about Crimea and Libya. Kalin reiterated Turkey’s dedication to mediate between Russia and Ukraine each by means of NATO channels and bilaterally. Kalin moreover said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will reiterate his supply to host Putin and Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Istanbul, Turkey, throughout a possible upcoming telephone name on an unspecified date with Putin.
Individually, Turkish Chief of the Common Employees Yasar Guler and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe Tod Wolters mentioned latest developments in NATO over the telephone on February 20. Previous to the decision, Turkish Protection Minister Hulusi Akar urged warning towards the chance of attainable escalations resulting from disinformation campaigns and underlined the necessity for stability within the Black Sea area in a speech.[34] Akar attended the Munich Safety Convention in Munich, Germany on February 18-19 however his official agenda and Turkish assembly readouts didn’t deal with Ukraine.[35] Ankara has just lately performed down the Russian army buildup in comparison with different NATO allies, doubtless resulting from its fragile partnership with Russia. It has not urged its residents to go away Ukraine as of February 20 and restricted its official statements on Ukraine after the latest escalations close to the Ukrainian border regardless of its ongoing protection cooperation with Ukraine.
UK International Secretary Liz Truss introduced the UK will set up a brand new anti-disinformation heart towards Russia throughout an interview with the Every day Mail on February 19.[36] Truss said the UK’s “Russia-Ukraine Authorities Info Cell (GIC)” will expose disinformation and rebut false narratives. Truss warned that Russian disinformation campaigns have doubled up to now week and should function a false flag excuse for Russia to invade Ukraine. Truss said the brand new GIC unit is the primary revival of the UK’s unique info items that it disbanded after the Chilly Struggle. Truss additionally warned that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could encourage the Kremlin to pursue related said ambitions towards different japanese European and Baltic states, together with NATO allies. Truss additionally criticized the coordinated Chinese language-Russian strain towards the fitting of recent states to freely be a part of NATO.
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson highlighted the potential human price of a Russian assault on Ukraine, said the US and UK may droop Russian firms from buying and selling in kilos and {dollars} and underscored NATO’s resoluteness ought to Russia invade in an interview with the BBC on February 20.[37] Johnson claimed a Russian invasion has “in some senses begun.” Johnson mentioned that western intelligence sources consider Russia intends to encircle the Ukrainian capital Kyiv in what could be “the most important conflict in Europe” since World Struggle II. Johnson warned this is able to be a “bloody and protracted” battle that will be catastrophic for human life. Johnson maintained that the UK and US are ready to impose in depth sanctions on Russia, together with suspending Russian firms from buying and selling in kilos and {dollars}. Johnson emphasised that NATO leaders realized from Putin’s annexation of Crimea and that Putin will “get extra NATO” if he invades Ukraine.
The Canadian Authorities delivered a safety help payload to Kyiv, Ukraine, on February 19.[38] Ukraine’s protection minister said that the cargo included unspecified rifles, machine weapons, evening imaginative and prescient and surveillance gadgets, and different army tools.
Different Worldwide Exercise
N/A
[1] https://www.mil dot by/ru/information/144795/.
[2] https://www.understandingwar.org/websites/default/information/Ukrainepercent20Invasion%….
[3] https://operate.mil dot ru /news_page/nation/extra.htm?id=12409710@egNews..
[4] https://operate.mil dot ru/news_page/nation/extra.htm?id=12409737@egNews.
[5] https://twitter.com/MrFrantarelli/status/1495433737160564736.
[6] https://t dot me/infantmilitario/68695.
[7] https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1495436428456644614.
[8] https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1495342032360984579.
https://twitter.com/Karmabash/status/1495453506576257033?s=20&t=n_e82abg….
[9] https://tass dot ru/obschestvo/13776051.
[10] https://tass dot ru/proisshestviya/13773721; https://tass dot ru/obschestvo/13775275; https://tass dot ru/obschestvo/13776321.
[11] https://tass dot ru/obschestvo/13774765..
[12] https://rg dot ru/2022/02/20/reg-cfo/eshche-shest-poezdov-perevezut-v-regiony-rossii-5-tysiach-bezhencev-iz-donbassa.html; https://tass dot ru/obschestvo/13774293; https://tass dot ru/obschestvo/13772091; https://tass dot ru/obschestvo/13773767.
[13] https://iz dot ru/1294227/2022-02-20/okolo-950-tys-zhitelei-donbassa-podali-zaiavleniia-na-grazhdanstvo-rossii.
[14] https://www.kommersant dot ru/doc/5227720.
[15] https://tass dot ru/politika/13774029.
[16] https://iz dot ru/1294249/2022-02-20/peskov-zaiavil-o-nezhelanii-zelenskogo-vypolniat-minskie-soglasheniia
[17] https://tass dot ru/politika/13773907
[18] https://tass dot ru/proisshestviya/13773331; https://iz dot ru/1294161/2022-02-20/v-donetcke-blokirovali-diversionno-terroristicheskuiu-gruppu; https://iz dot ru/1294190/2022-02-20/v-dnr-zafiksirovali-piat-diversii-s-nachala-eskalatcii-v-donbasse.
[19] https://t dot me/nm_dnr/6219.
[20] https://t dot me/millnr/7152; https://www.pravda dot ru/information/world/1684361-ukraina_lnr_ataka/.
[21] https://lenta dot ru/information/2022/02/20/lnrdelo/.
[22] https://www.understandingwar.org/websites/default/information/ISWpercent20Ukrainepercent20Ind….
[23] https://twitter.com/AdamHalacinski/status/1495374776810065923.
[24] https://youtu.be/jatI9We9WfA; https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-with-state-of-the-union… https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/20/politics/blinken-ukraine-russia-cnntv/ind….
[25] https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/02/20/rem….
[26] https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pentagon-spox-gives-examples-of-what-is….
[27] https://twitter.com/FaceTheNation/status/1495427546153902080.
[28] https://www.cbsnews.com/information/russia-ukraine-invasion-us-intelligence-ord….
[29] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-post-soviet-military-bloc….
[30] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-post-soviet-military-bloc…
[31] https://www.understandingwar.org/websites/default/information/Ukrainepercent20Conflict%…
[32] https://www.cnnturk.com/video/turkiye/kalin-turkiye-rusya-ukrayna-krizi-… https://www.dw.com/tr/kalpercentC4percentB1n-putin-spercentC4percentB1npercentC4percentB1rlarpercentC4percentB1-yeniden-….
[33] https://tass dot ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/13773673.
[34] https://twitter.com/tcsavunma/status/1495302989912977411.
[35] https://www.msb.gov.tr/SlaytHaber/2022022-41634.
[36] https://www.dailymail.co.uk/information/article-10531353/Liz-Truss-insists-faci….
[37] https://www.bbc.com/information/uk-politics-60448162; https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-20-22-intl/h….
[38] https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1495113341622181888.
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