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Russia’s battle in Ukraine is unlikely to have a uniform impact throughout Southeast Asia, says Anthony Nafte of CLSA.
Many economies within the area are internet oil importers and are set to return beneath “numerous stress,” Nafte instructed CNBC’s “Road Indicators Asia” on Wednesday. He famous the latest spikes in commodity costs have been “a lot greater” than anticipated and may very well be doubtlessly extended.
Commodity costs have surged since Russia invaded Ukraine, with oil costs hitting ranges not seen since 2008. Russia is a serious oil producer whereas Ukraine is an enormous exporter of different commodities akin to wheat and corn.
Nonetheless, Indonesia may “really do fairly effectively” within the present surroundings attributable to its commodity-driven economic system, in response to Nafte, who’s a senior economist at CLSA.
“Greater than 50% of their exports are derived from commodities, and now you have bought a place the place your commodity costs are going to remain greater for longer,” Nafte mentioned.
He mentioned, for instance, Russia is at present the second largest provider of coal to China and disruptions may push Beijing to show to Indonesia to fill the hole.
“Indonesia’s going to profit from the value impact but additionally by way of quantity,” Nafte mentioned.
Thailand’s economic system, however, sits at “the opposite excessive,” he mentioned.
Present situations current continued headwinds for exports and tourism, Thailand’s largest financial drivers, “by way of the remainder of the yr,” the economist mentioned.
“This disruption to world commerce might be an enormous headwind for exports,” he mentioned. “By way of the tourism revival, I feel 2022 is simply too early. There’s nonetheless going to be lots of points.”
Thailand’s steadiness of funds additionally faces the “largest vulnerability” amongst rising Southeast Asian economies, he added.
“That they had an enormous present account deficit final yr due to that lack of tourism revenues, and their change fee appears to be like significantly susceptible,” Nafte mentioned.
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