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Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin held a cellphone dialog on Mar. 9, just a few days after Egypt voted in favor of a UN Normal Meeting decision condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The contact between the 2 presidents is the primary because the begin of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. Egypt has sought to stay impartial and discover a balanced stance towards the disaster.
Through the name, Sisi harassed the necessity to prioritize dialogue to settle the Ukrainian disaster, affirming Egypt’s assist for diplomacy that might keep away from additional aggravation of the disaster and protect worldwide safety and stability.
The 2 leaders additionally mentioned methods to strengthen strategic cooperation frameworks via joint growth initiatives, in line with a press release issued by Sisi’s workplace.
Based on a Kremlin assertion, “The presidents mentioned additional growth of the strategic partnership between Russia and Egypt, together with main joint initiatives in nuclear power and industrial manufacturing. Each events expressed curiosity in persevering with shut cooperation in tourism and agriculture.”
The assertion went on, “On the request of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Vladimir Putin defined the explanations for and objectives of the particular navy operation to guard Donbass and spoke about Russia’s efforts throughout the talks with Ukrainian representatives. The president of Egypt thanked Russia for the efforts to evacuate Egyptian nationals from the battle zone.”
Earlier than the Russian invasion, Egyptians in Ukraine numbered about 6,000, together with 3,000 college college students. For the reason that begin of the battle, tons of of Egyptians in Ukraine have sought refuge in neighboring nations akin to Romania, Austria, Hungary, Slovakia, and Poland. Efforts to facilitate their return to Egypt are ongoing.
Soraya al-Farra, a professor of political science at Moscow College, advised Al-Monitor, “Russia sees in Egypt a strategic accomplice within the Center East. Each nations are eager on preserving and consolidating their ties.”
Farra mentioned that Sisi’s cellphone name to Putin was designed to make clear Egypt’s vote in favor of the UN Normal Meeting decision on March 2. “Cairo needed to please the West and justify Russia’s place on the similar time,” she mentioned.
Amid more and more heated combating on the bottom in Ukraine and mounting financial sanctions from the West in opposition to Russia, Egypt finds itself torn between the West and Moscow. It’s certain to each by deep financial and strategic pursuits.
At first, Egypt was reluctant to explicitly condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine and as a substitute known as for diplomatic options and a political settlement to the disaster, prompting the G7 ambassadors and the European Union ambassador in Cairo to challenge a joint assertion on March 1 urgent the Egyptian authorities to face with Ukraine.
The subsequent day, Egypt together with 140 different nations voted in favor of a UN decision calling on Russia to right away finish its aggression in opposition to Ukraine. Egypt’s everlasting consultant in New York, Osama Abdel-Khalek, gave Cairo’s causes for the vote and voiced his nation’s rejection of financial sanctions in opposition to Moscow.
“The present disaster is fateful for Moscow. Worldwide stances will form Russia’s future relations,” Farra mentioned.
Timothy Kaldas, a coverage fellow on the Tahrir Institute for Center East Coverage, advised Al-Monitor that Sisi is attempting to return to an understanding with Putin in order that his nominal endorsement of the Western place on Ukraine doesn’t endanger Egypt’s long-term relationship with Russia.
“President Sisi has labored to determine shut ties with President Putin in quite a lot of fields starting from power to agriculture to arms. He has additionally sought to make use of his relations with Russia and China to help Egypt to attenuate Western stress on Egypt over its poor human rights report and political repression,” mentioned Kaldas.
With Sisi’s rise to energy in the summertime of 2014, Egyptian-Russian relations grew. Arms offers grew to become a mainstay in Egyptian-Russian relations as Russia become one of the vital sources of Egyptian armament alongside america and France.
Additionally, Russia’s State Atomic Power Company, Rosatom, is presently constructing a nuclear energy plant in Egypt’s Dabaa in a $26 billion undertaking. A Russian industrial zone within the Suez Canal Financial Zone is scheduled to being constructed this 12 months and is predicted to draw about $7 billion in investments.
“Since 2013, Egypt has determined to diversify [its weapons sources] away from US-made navy tools. Towards that backdrop, Moscow emerged as a dependable arms provider to Cairo,” Mohammed Soliman, a non-resident scholar on the Center East Institute, advised Al-Monitor.
Soliman mentioned that Cairo’s shut navy and financial ties with Moscow will likely be detrimental to Egypt’s pursuits if Russia turns into a pariah state, so Cairo would not plan to select sides within the warfare.
Of observe, Egypt additionally has strategic pursuits with america, which supplies it with navy assist and considers it a key Center East accomplice. Egypt additionally has pursuits with Ukraine and the European Union, with eyes on changing into a gasoline exportation hub to many European nations.
“Egypt has sturdy navy, safety, and financial relations with each Moscow and Washington. Cairo is aware of it has to stroll a advantageous line between the 2 world superpowers as a way to not jeopardize Egypt’s nationwide pursuits,” Soliman famous.
In the meantime, Cairo fears a attainable scarcity in its wheat provide as a result of Russian warfare. Egypt is the most important importer of wheat on this planet and depends upon Russia and Ukraine for as much as 80% of its imports. Russia and Ukraine present a few quarter of the world’s wheat provide and the battle has disrupted their manufacturing.
Egypt’s state grains purchaser, the Normal Authority for Provide Commodities, has canceled two wheat provide tenders because the begin of the warfare as a consequence of excessive costs and lack of bids. Two shipments are presently caught in Ukraine amid the closure of delivery ports.
Egyptian authorities spokesperson Nader Saad mentioned Mar. 8 that Egypt will obtain a Russian cargo of wheat throughout March underneath a deal concluded earlier than the disaster, with out specifying the portions to be provided.
In the meantime, Russian wheat shipments to Egypt are anticipated to come across difficulties associated to cost, after Russian banks have been excluded from the SWIFT system as a part of the sanctions imposed by the West.
Egypt is predicted to incur an extra 12-15 billion Egyptian kilos ($763-$954 million) in extra of its finances allocations for the present 12 months as a result of 50% wheat value hikes in worldwide markets.
The Egyptian authorities has reported that it has a stockpile of wheat that’s adequate for 4 months and that Egypt’s native crop will present the equal of an extra 4 months.
Kaldas identified that the Ukraine battle has created a number of challenges for Egypt, which want to keep a level of neutrality with respect to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine however might battle to take action. “The Achilles’ heel of Egyptian international coverage independence is its monetary weak spot as a consequence of years of financial mismanagement,” he mentioned.
Since 2016, as a part of its financial reform plan, Egypt has secured tens of billions of {dollars} of financing from Western-controlled worldwide monetary establishments just like the Worldwide Financial Fund and the European Financial institution for Reconstruction and Improvement.
Kaldas famous, “That is assist Russia can not substitute. The shareholders of those establishments can impose far stricter situations on future loans and investments for Egypt whereas lowering the dimensions of their monetary assist.”
“It in the end will make it troublesome for Egypt to withstand Western calls for to aspect in opposition to Russia’s invasion if the West is prepared to make use of its leverage to power Egypt’s hand,” he concluded.
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