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ATHENS — Greece goes all-in on the West — and Greeks are grumbling with dissatisfaction.
After Russian troops poured into Ukraine in late February, Greece was one of many first EU international locations to announce it will ship Kyiv arms to assist it combat off the invaders. It got here a day after Russian airstrikes killed a minimum of 10 ethnic Greeks in Ukraine, members of a historic neighborhood of 150,000 relationship again to the 18th century.
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis stood up earlier than parliament and declared that his authorities was absolutely dedicated.
“There could be no equal distances,” he stated. “You’re both with peace and worldwide regulation or towards them.”
Whereas the shipments — largely rifles and anti-tank missiles — have been hardly sufficient to change the stability of the warfare, they fairly symbolic again house. In a matter of days, Mitsotakis had dramatically upended Greece’s long-standing aversion to getting concerned in overseas conflicts. And his transfer stood out in a area the place different international locations have gone the opposite method, making an attempt to function a mediator as a substitute of an arms provider.
Whereas the present Greek authorities has been drifting militarily nearer to the U.S. and Western allies in recent times, the alacrity of the arms cargo nonetheless struck some as a step too far.
Massive parts of the inhabitants reacted with shock — Russophile sentiments stay in elements of Greece, given the centuries of spiritual, navy, financial and cultural ties between the 2 international locations. And the political opposition additionally condemned the strategy, arguing it endangered Greece’s capability to take care of steady ties with the disparate international locations round them.
In a ballot printed Monday, roughly 70 % of Greeks known as the choice a mistake. In one other survey, 63 % stated the choice could show to be harmful for Greece.
The backlash could also be having an impact. Final week, Greece turned down an off-the-cuff request from Ukraine for Soviet-era TOR-Μ1 and Osa-AK missile programs, based on authorities officers. One official stated no extra arms cargo needs to be anticipated from Greece.
New doctrine
Greek society just isn’t accustomed to such direct navy interventions overseas.
Even through the wars in Yugoslavia within the Nineties, which introduced battle into Greece’s neighborhood, Athens solely allowed NATO programs to switch by its nation, taking a cautious stance in offering direct navy assist.
Equally, through the warfare in Afghanistan, Greek forces solely helped construct infrastructure and distribute humanitarian assist. They have been by no means concerned in front-line operations towards the Taliban.
Greek society additionally has historic ties to Russia, a fellow Christian Orthodox nation that helped the Greeks combat off Ottoman rule in 1821. Extra lately, Moscow has been considered as a protector in Greece’s long-running rivalry with neighbor Turkey.
Mitsotakis met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in December and Overseas Minister Nikos Dendias was among the many final to satisfy his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov simply days earlier than the invasion.
Nonetheless, the Greek mantra was altering throughout that interval.
“Greece,” Mitsotakis declared within the Greek parliament, “is the final outpost of the West.”
Constantinos Filis, director of the Institute of International Affairs and a professor of worldwide relations on the American School of Greece, described the shift as “two selections.”
First, he stated, Greece determined “it can not depend upon the EU and NATO to safe itself from Turkey” — it additionally wants bilateral navy offers to spice up its personal capability. Second, he added, “Greece underneath the present authorities has determined to get extra deeply concerned and put its hand within the hearth, even with boots on the bottom.”
On the primary level, Greece final September signed a serious protection deal, which included commitments from Athens to buy a minimum of €3 billion value of French warships, in addition to a clause on mutual protection help. Greece’s conservative authorities has additionally renewed a protection settlement with the U.S. that grants American forces open-ended entry to 4 pivotal navy bases, irritating Russia.
Elsewhere, it assisted Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen’s civil warfare, sending Greek troopers and Patriot missiles final yr.
At house, Greece has argued it should bolster its navy amid rising tensions with Turkey within the Aegean and Jap Mediterranean Seas.
Analysts famous that Greece’s heightened willingness to assist out overseas might help it at house. Not solely does it let troops achieve battle expertise, but it surely additionally offers Athens extra standing to ask others for navy assist.
Mitsotakis made the identical argument after sending weapons to Ukraine. Other than being “morally simply,” he stated, the choice additionally advantages Greece’s nationwide pursuits.
“With what ethical standing would we ask for comparable help if we discovered ourselves in the identical place?” he stated in a latest interview. “We’ve an extra cause, in comparison with different European international locations, to be on the precise facet of historical past,” he added, making a transparent reference to Greece’s tense relationship with Turkey.
Chopping off the Greek bridge
That’s not how everybody sees it.
Opponents counter that sending navy gear to Kyiv mechanically positions Greece instantly towards Russia, with out on the identical time making certain Western ensures towards Turkey. Greece, they are saying, can’t depend on the U.S. or NATO to oppose Turkish aggression, regardless of the federal government’s determination. They level to the equal stance coverage NATO has adopted in a number of crises between Greece and Turkey, together with the newest in 2020.
The sentiment is frequent. In a ballot carried out after Russia’s invasion, 71 % condemned the invasion, however 65 % stated Greece ought to stay utterly impartial. And in a POLITICO ballot, 60 % of Greeks agreed that the Russian invasion was unacceptable, the bottom determine among the many six international locations polled.
Given these dynamics, the federal government’s determination “was not made frivolously,” stated Emmanuel Karagiannis, a global safety professional at King’s School London.
A number of components fueled the Greek shift towards Russia, he stated: The EU’s swift response to the Russian invasion, the Russian bombardments that killed the ethnic Greeks, and a broader need to sign to Turkey that its territorial claims received’t be tolerated.
However, he added, “in consequence, the Russian-Greek relations have reached a brand new low with unknown penalties for regional safety.”
Different international locations within the Jap Mediterranean area have tried to take care of an allegiance with the West, whereas additionally protecting a door open to Russia. Putin has taken benefit of this throughout his time in energy, establishing a higher Russian presence within the Mediterranean and Center East.
Because the begin of the warfare in Ukraine, Turkey and Israel have been taking part in the position of mediator. Turkey is the one NATO member that hasn’t joined the West on sanctions. Israel has additionally refused. Each have tried to dealer talks between the 2 sides.
Inside Greece, Alexis Tsipras, chief of the principle opposition social gathering Syriza, rapidly condemned the Russian invasion, backing robust sanctions on Moscow and humanitarian assist for Ukraine. However he stated that by offering arms, Greece successfully gave up its capability to be a part of the trouble to carry peace between Ukraine and Russia.
“The subversion of the previous doctrine … that Greece has a political house in Europe but in addition needs to have a bridge position with the opposite political powers, and its alternative with the Chilly Struggle mantra that ‘Greece is a Western outpost,’ doesn’t profit our nation,” stated George Katrougalos, Syriza MP and a former overseas minister.
Katrougalos argued that Greece’s “maximalism” with Western allies has not created any advantages. He pointed to a latest U.S. determination to withdraw help for the East Med fuel pipeline, a €6 billion challenge that might have introduced income to Greece, after a dispute over whether or not the pipeline would run by Turkey.
“Our nation advantages when it pursues a multidimensional overseas coverage, and never when it seems to be taken with no consideration within the context of relations that aren’t characterised by reciprocity,” Katrougalos stated.
A number of retired senior military officers have additionally gone on TV in Greece to vehemently oppose the Greek arms shipments to Ukraine. “Dangerous, pointless and foolish,” stated one.
A senior protection official even despatched the sign that sending Ukraine Greece’s S-300 anti-aircraft missile programs could “weaken the nation’s protection.”
“Greece has to comply with a multidimensional overseas coverage, act as a bridge between politicians and states,” stated Filis, the American School of Greece professor. “It can not shut its door to China, Russia and different rising powers.”
Given the growing bipolarity of the worldwide order, nevertheless, such a balancing act will solely develop harder.
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