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If Ursula von der Leyen’s five-year time period may be likened to a soccer match, her staff is heading for the half-time break with the scores even and some bruised shins (principally from self-inflicted errors).
It’s been a wild journey.
Once they took the sphere in December 2019, von der Leyen’s squad of commissioners envisioned a diplomatic offensive wherein Brussels would sneak a number of objectives previous its chief geopolitical counterparts, China and america. Tactically, the formation was set as much as give attention to digital and inexperienced insurance policies that might power rivals to play on the EU’s phrases.
Then the pandemic struck.
The tidal wave of infections that roared over Europe tore up the German chief’s sport plan and compelled her staff to scramble to adapt to unprecedented circumstances.
They flailed at first, shifting too slowly and naively to safe vaccines and permitting nationwide capitals to take the initiative on journey restrictions.
However they regrouped and bought the bloc’s first joint vaccine procurement program underway. Slowly, defensive ways gave technique to a extra assertive method and, three years into the worst pandemic because the Spanish Flu, Europe is again in enterprise.
The Fee deserves some credit score for that.
But when the squad hoped for a lull within the motion, they had been sorely disenchanted. Not lengthy earlier than the Fee reached the midway level, Russia’s all-out army assault on Ukraine created the largest disruption to Europe’s safety structure since World Struggle II. Within the chaotic days that adopted, the Fee tried to maintain Staff Europe unified, and achieved exceptional success on sanctions and army help. However it stays annoyed in its efforts to coordinate a standard power coverage vis-à-vis Moscow.
This double whammy of illness and warfare has put a highlight on some unlikely performers on von der Leyen’s aspect — folks like Stella Kyriakides, whose usually secondary well being portfolio all of a sudden turned central. It’s pushed von der Leyen herself into an arguably even higher-profile and extra geopolitical function than she might need anticipated. However it’s additionally overshadowed some stars, like digital czar Margrethe Vestager, who has didn’t web any memorable objectives towards Massive Tech on this match.
The staff has additionally carried out poorly on away days.
Josep Borrell, the EU’s excessive consultant for overseas affairs, was caught flatfooted by Russia’s veteran overseas minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow. Von der Leyen was briefly benched in Ankara, when poor positional play on the a part of her colleagues left her humiliated in a gathering with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
The EU chieftain additionally needed to make an early substitution after Commissioner Phil Hogan, a key enforcer, was pressured to go away the sphere.
Regardless of these troubles, the von der Leyen Fee continues to be going exhausting. Inner Market Commissioner Thierry Breton is proving a critical risk, probing for alternatives to attain. Frans Timmermans’ Inexperienced technique appears prefer it nonetheless has legs.
Residence Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johannsson has develop into a formidable operator, equally assertive on migration and digital issues. Slovakia’s Maroš Šefčovič has performed the function of defensive rock, tasked with retaining troublesome threats akin to Brexit and the Swiss in verify. Margaritis Schinas, against this, talks a superb sport however has struggled to impose himself within the large matches.
POLITICO’s journalists have reviewed the efficiency of essentially the most distinguished commissioners, scoring them out of 10 on two metrics: Energy, as in how properly they used and projected it; and Coverage, as in how efficient have they been in reaching their objectives thus far.
The squad
Any plan Ursula von der Leyen might need had for her time period as Fee president was blown out of the water inside 100 days by the pandemic. Since then, she has gone from one disaster to a different, pandemic adopted by warfare, all whereas maintaining with mundane but existential duties of retaining Brexit from boiling over and Budapest and Warsaw onside.
However whereas these crises have challenged von der Leyen, they’ve additionally introduced alternatives. It’s unthinkable that Brussels may have labored up a plan to pool debt between EU nations and launched a large focused spending splurge with out the pandemic. That’s additionally given von der Leyen an surprising lever to battle again towards renegade nations akin to Poland and Hungary by threatening to withhold funds.
Russia’s warfare on Ukraine can also be lending contemporary impetus to calls to decarbonize the bloc’s greatest economies. Ditching Russian oil and fuel will inevitably imply extra dedication to draft insurance policies pushed by von der Leyen’s staff on the whole lot from rolling out electrical vehicles to creating residential buildings extra power environment friendly.
Assuming no contemporary disaster springs up within the coming months, von der Leyen now has an opportunity to make use of the additional powers at her disposal to begin actually flexing some muscle.
The brand new German authorities has made it clear it received’t be insisting she will get a second time period. So there’s no want to carry something again. The true take a look at will likely be whether or not she will move the sprawling local weather change-mitigating set of insurance policies she launched underneath the Inexperienced Deal shortly after taking workplace. On that, the jury continues to be out.
— By Josh Posaner
Ylva Johansson was quick on Brussels expertise when she turned Residence Affairs Commissioner, however a number of stints as a minister in her residence nation had hardened the Swedish politician’s metal.
One instance: After the EU’s anti-fraud workplace opened a probe over allegations of unlawful pushbacks of asylum seekers, harassment and misconduct at border company Frontex, Johansson went for the company’s boss, Fabrice Leggeri. Vice President Margaritis Schinas tried to step in on behalf of Leggeri, however Johansson was unfazed.
Leggeri stepped down on the finish of April.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24 supplied Johansson one other likelihood to show she’s a tricky buyer. After hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians fled to Europe, she campaigned for the EU to make use of a particular legislative instrument to supply them non permanent safety, together with the suitable to reside and work within the bloc. On March 3, the EU’s inside ministers agreed to her proposal.
The hassle was exceptional for 3 causes: 1) It was the primary time the EU had used the instrument because it was created 20 years in the past. 2) Clinching a deal on migration so quickly had by no means been achieved earlier than. 3) Diplomats had been saying up till the final minute earlier than a deal was introduced that their talks had been simply that — talks.
Nonetheless, it hasn’t been all easy crusing for Johansson.
The assessment of asylum guidelines she and Schinas placed on the desk in September 2020 continues to be caught. However some diplomats imagine that the Ukraine disaster stands out as the key that unlocks the door to progress. If Johansson is ready to ship on migration, she’ll have scored one for the staff.
— By Jacopo Barigazzi
Handed arguably the EU’s most transformative job, one-time presidential hopeful-cum-Inexperienced Deal boss Frans Timmermans has made a behavior of turning adversity into alternative throughout a tumultuous interval.
Charged with steering the EU’s local weather coverage, the Dutchman already had a full to-do listing — and that was simply coping with Poland and its coal trade. The belief from many when the pandemic struck was that local weather coverage could be derailed. The identical was true when the warfare in Ukraine started. However Timmermans’s reply to each obvious setback has been the identical: extra local weather motion, not much less.
With the coronavirus, the groundbreaking restoration bundle was was a inexperienced stimulus. And the warfare turned one other good cause to get off Russian fossil fuels and speed up the transition to renewable power. Turning these ambitions into actuality will dominate the second half of Timmermans’ time period.
On the identical time, Timmermans hasn’t taken his eye off his objective. Having nursed the EU’s Local weather Legislation into existence, embedding the objective to be local weather impartial by 2050, he reveals no signal of being able to drop the ball. In the meantime, the awfully-named Match for 55 bundle, which comprises emissions-cutting coverage proposals from ending the combustion engine to insulating buildings, is shifting slowly ahead.
Together with his market-loving boss von der Leyen pushing an enlargement of the EU’s emissions buying and selling system to hit fuels for heating properties and driving vehicles, the outdated socialist needed to revise his personal ideological objections. Now he must carry capitals and Parliament with him and ship the financial revolution he’s been promising.
— By Karl Mathiesen
Who’s Kadri Simson? Nicely would possibly you ask. For a lot of the primary half of her time period, the close to nameless commissioner for power has seen a lot of her function sucked into the gravity area of Timmermans’ Inexperienced Deal mission. However Russia’s warfare in Ukraine has thrust her portfolio again into the limelight. And Simson is now one of many key folks writing the coverage for ending the EU’s habit to Russian power.
If, as is typically mentioned, disaster reveals character, Simson has had little to point out. When issues had been calm, Simson was the consummate civil servant: no fuss, extremely consultative, weak tea. She has additionally needed to take care of Timmermans continually stepping onto her patch.
Now that a number of crises are calling out for larger imaginative and prescient, her response has been largely extra of the identical. It wasn’t till months into the power worth crunch that Simson lastly got here out with a “toolkit” that coloured very a lot between the strains, by no means testing the EU’s powers to intervene. And now that the Fee is scrambling to spice up photo voltaic and wind as a technique to counter Russian affect, renewable power advocates are questioning whether or not issues might need been completely different if the Fee had had an aggressive champion for clear energy pushing the ball ahead for the previous two years.
— By Karl Mathiesen
Stella Kyriakides had no concept what awaited her when she took up the submit of Well being Commissioner in 2019. In regular occasions the Cypriot official would have had a quiet journey: Heath isn’t a core EU competence. And underneath the earlier Fee, the well being price range totaled a measly €449.4 million unfold over 7 years.
Then a pandemic got here alongside.
As a substitute of a quiet five-year sojourn in Brussels, Kyriakides needed to handle the bloc’s pandemic response alongside colourful characters like Thierry Breton, whereas overseeing a large enlargement of the well being price range, to €5.1 billion.
From a bureaucratic perspective, the commissioner put the pandemic to good use. She expanded the powers of the EU’s well being companies and introduced a brand new one into the world: the Well being Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority. And she or he’s stored the bloc’s preexisting well being priorities — together with the Most cancers Plan and the European Well being Knowledge Area — on observe.
However the place she scores extremely for diligence, Kyriakides falls quick on political punch. For higher or worse (the EU’s response initially left a lot to be desired), Kyriakides was overshadowed by Breton and others on vaccine procurement. It’s additionally controversial that, given the circumstances, she may have wrestled over much more well being powers for the Fee.
A pandemic supplied the right alternative for Kyiakides to increase the EU’s well being mandate. Now she simply wants to begin taking credit score for her work.
— By Carlo Martuscelli
The Italian has accomplished his umpteenth transformation — from referee to artistic power.
Tapped by a populist authorities to be Italy’s man in Brussels, Gentiloni was initially set to be a buffer between the Fee and Rome’s incessant political and financial turmoils — be it authorities crises, extreme debt, or bailouts of dangerous banks and loss-making airways. Placing an Italian within the submit was a sensible transfer by the incoming Fee president. It meant that authorities in Rome would have a well-known face to take care of, lowering the prospect of friction, and on the identical time stopping what was then a extremely Euroskeptic authorities from blaming Brussels for unpalatable insurance policies.
However destiny had different issues in retailer for Gentiloni: With the arrival of the pandemic, debt guidelines had been lifted. Following the momentous resolution to subject a whole lot of billions in frequent debt, EU cash began copiously flowing to capitals and the EU managed to show round its picture from clergymen of austerity, to deus ex machina. Because the particular person proving the passes that allow governments rating with their voters, and one of many strongest advocates for repeating this financial feat, Gentiloni has lifted his profile. He’s additionally remodeled his portfolio’s conventional function of browbeating nations into line into one in all granting fortunes to pandemic-ridden economies.
That is simply the newest of Gentilioni’s many lives. A former prime minister, overseas minister, long-time MP, journalist, activist, and incognito nobleman, all through his profession he has supported actions as various as Maoism, environmentalism and Christian-centrist politics. Adapting to altering situations on the pitch appears to be his motto.
The approaching months and years are more likely to be more difficult, nonetheless. Gentiloni must wield each ounce of his appreciable political weight to deal with Fee hawks, together with his boss Valdis Dombrovskis. Additional debt issuance and an upcoming reform of the bloc’s fiscal guidelines will likely be future flashpoints, simply as warfare, rising inflation and a attainable recession darken the financial outlook. The group will likely be watching to see if the mild-mannered Italian can adapt his sport plan once more.
— By Paola Tamma
The extent of his financial portfolio, particularly since he took over the commerce transient in October 2020, has made Dombrovskis an influence participant on the coronary heart of the Fee’s midfield. However as a former prime minister of Latvia who grew up within the Soviet Union, Dombrovskis’ playmaker function has grown much more because the begin of the warfare in Ukraine. He has lengthy been one of many strongest voices across the Fee desk in warning concerning the risk Russian President Vladimir Putin posed. Because the invasion, he has rallied the staff in condemning Putin and urging the EU to go additional in its actions towards Moscow.
Since he took over the commerce portfolio (after Phil Hogan’s purple card) he has deployed some deft footwork to fix relations with the Biden administration and increase the bloc’s commerce protection. Whereas a variety of work stays to be achieved on reviving the multilateral commerce area and getting the EU’s free commerce engine working once more, the EU’s greatest free commerce followers hope Dombrovskis can revive the backlog of commerce offers within the coming years. However to carry the European Parliament on board with the free commerce agenda, Dombrovskis is gingerly ramping up the EU’s local weather and labor necessities. It’s not clear but whether or not he can pull off such an intricate transfer.
On the financial entrance, Dombrovskis supplies a counterweight to 2 of his fellow commissioners. When Paolo Gentiloni pushes ahead with joint debt and a debate on fiscal guidelines, Dombrovskis urges extra cautious ways. And in distinction to France’s Thierry Breton, it’s the extra liberal, trade-friendly Dombrovskis who’s urgent additional upfield.
— By Paola Tamma and Barbara Moens
The Slovakian European Fee Vice President has risen to surprising prominence as Brussels’ chief negotiator for extremely sophisticated commerce talks with Britain and Switzerland. It is a function wherein Šefčovič has tried to differentiate himself from his predecessors by approaching negotiations in a extra pragmatic vogue.
He’s additionally taking an excellent larger function than the bloc’s precise commerce commissioner, Valdis Dombrovskis, who’s battling a worldwide EU commerce agenda that has run out of steam.
But critics say Šefčovič generally tends to be over-optimistic or raises expectations which can be exhausting to meet, which in return dangers creating frustration — or tensions.
In the course of the post-Brexit discussions on Northern Eire commerce on the finish of final 12 months, he repeatedly introduced that each side had been about to strike a deal on medicines, solely to then should admit a number of occasions on the finish of negotiation rounds that they nonetheless weren’t there.
Within the case of Switzerland, Šefčovič hasn’t been in a position to ship a lot progress but and even engaged in a diplomatic row with Swiss Overseas Minister Ignazio Cassis over what sort of “roadmap” each side had agreed on for additional talks.
Šefčovič additionally arrange what turned often known as the European Battery Alliance, a wonky new system for fostering private and non-private collaboration. It is taken off to such an extent that different commissioners are replicating the mannequin for strategic industries akin to hydrogen, rockets and chips.
— By Hans von der Burchard
The Danish politician began her second time period in Brussels with an outsized repute. She had scored direct hits, towards a few of Massive Tech’s greatest names — and was now seeking to double down on these victories. Her technique for the brand new staff included plans for brand new guidelines geared toward growing on-line competitors and lowering how dangerous content material may unfold on-line. However the former playmaker has underperformed within the first half elevating questions on her type — and future.
On the big-ticket laws — the Digital Companies and Digital Markets Acts — she will take credit score for updating the bloc’s rulemaking for the primary time in a technology. These guidelines are anticipated to make it harder for the likes of Google and Fb to scoop up smaller rivals, in addition to clamp down on misinformation and dangerous items circulating on-line.
But given the altering winds inside Brussels, Vestager’s free-market values have fallen considerably out of favor — which means she’s discovered it more durable to hyperlink up with teammates. The primary half additionally included one large miss. Within the blockbuster court docket loss within the €13 billion state support case towards Apple, she didn’t capitalize on one of many greatest achievements from her first time period on the European Fee.
That damage her sure-footed repute because the world’s hardest Massive Tech enforcer. So did ongoing criticism that regardless of Europe’s exhausting line on digital antitrust instances, nothing has actually modified in how a few of Silicon Valley’s greatest names nonetheless dominate a lot of the web world.
— By Mark Scott
If you wish to hear how profitable Thierry Breton has been as a European Commissioner, the very best particular person to ask might be Thierry Breton. The self-promoting Frenchman entered Brussels with a whirlwind of pre-match interviews, and has barely stopped — annoying different teammates along with his tendency to disregard the formation and stray all around the pitch. He is railed towards Massive Tech. He is championed COVID-19 vaccine rollouts. He is made it his private objective to push Europe’s “technological sovereignty” agenda, together with large investments within the bloc’s semiconductor trade.
These efforts have definitely labored out for Breton. His profile is arguably larger than that of his boss, Margrethe Vestager — regardless of her extra senior place within the staff. The Digital Companies Act and Digital Markets Act have given him the digital legislative credentials to inform the world he is taking over among the hardest challenges, and successful. Slick videos posted on Twitter — and repeated photo-ops with the likes of Tesla CEO Elon Musk — have given the inner market Commissioner a larger-than-life persona.
Nonetheless, critics argue his hectic agenda is extra about show-boating for the group than precise policymaking. His willingness to throw himself into any and all fights — and submit on social media to point out that he is doing it — has not received him followers in components of the Fee, which would favor him to tone down the theatrics and move the ball infrequently.
— By Mark Scott
Věra Jourová has lengthy combined idealism with pragmatism. In her second time period, she has centered on discovering methods the Fee can translate formidable rhetoric into coverage initiatives with impression.
The Czech politician has checked off some factors on the to-do listing President Ursula von der Leyen gave her in 2019. She introduced a European Democracy Motion Plan and reached a deal on the Transparency Register.
Jourová has additionally visibly made media freedom one in all her prime priorities, placing ahead a advice on the protection of journalists and proposing a directive to fight abusive lawsuits towards journalists. A brand new Media Freedom Act can also be within the works.
However in the case of the rule of regulation extra broadly, Jourová’s document — echoing the Fee’s document as a complete — is combined.
Along with Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders and Finances Commissioner Johannes Hahn, Jourová has pushed ahead a course of that might culminate in a discount in EU funding to nations akin to Hungary. The trio has at occasions taken a harder stance on the rule of regulation internally than von der Leyen herself. However regardless of these efforts, rule-of-law issues are anticipated to proceed plaguing some EU nations for years to come back.
— By Lili Bayer
After a jittery begin, Poland’s commissioner has doggedly pursued his imaginative and prescient of a extra animal-friendly, greener form of farming — however with restricted political sway to make it occur and little progress on the pitch.
In equity, the Fee’s new Inexperienced Deal construction is stacked towards him. Squeezed between the policy-hungry Frans Timmermans and Stella Kyriakides, the heady days when being EU farm chief meant untrammeled energy are lengthy gone. Timmermans is formally his boss and Kyriakides has led on meals and farm-related insurance policies akin to labeling, gene enhancing, animal welfare and new pesticides guidelines.
He’s been a loyal staff participant who has pulled his weight however in fact he has not led the work on the largest EU insurance policies on his patch. The reform of the large Widespread Agricultural Coverage was already properly underway when he was introduced on to the pitch and, although he prodded nationwide farm ministers to do extra, it was Timmermans who took the pictures on objective when talks bought powerful. Tellingly, Wojciechowski was absent from the press launch of the EU’s plan for the way forward for meals and farming in 2020, with three different commissioners taking heart stage as a substitute.
Wojciechowski’s personal flagship initiatives are a combined bag: His 2040 “imaginative and prescient” for rejuvenating rural areas is somewhat imprecise, however he spearheaded an formidable plan to extend natural farmland in Europe that MEPs enthusiastically supported.
Midway by his time period, there are indicators that Wojciechowski is elevating his sport. His English has improved, he’s combating the farmers’ nook on new emissions guidelines, and most significantly he’s appearing as a bridge between Warsaw, Brussels and Kyiv to assist Ukraine’s farmers entry to gas and higher export routes.
— By Eddy Wax
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