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Because the collapse of the Soviet Union, the South Caucasus has been unable to discover a mannequin for regional cooperation or type regional organizations. As I’ve famous elsewhere, “Over the previous three a long time, numerous initiatives for regional cooperation have been proposed, together with the ‘Peaceable Caucasus Initiative’ (Eduard Shevardnadze), ‘Stability Pact for the Caucasus’ (Süleyman Demirel, on January 16, 2000), ‘Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform’ (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, August 13, 2008), and ‘United Caucasus’ (Mikheil Saakashvili). However none of those proved profitable or long-lasting as a result of every did not fulfill the entire key members of the broader area.”
However the relative calm that adopted the Second Nagorno-Karabakh Warfare, particularly after the signing of the November 2020 cease-fire settlement, renewed hopes for regional cooperation within the Caucasus. Key regional actors proposed new codecs, together with Ankara’s “Six-Nation Regional Cooperation Platform” (involving Turkey, Russia, the Republic of Azerbaijan, Iran, Georgia, and Armenia) and Tehran’s “3+3” mannequin (involving the three South Caucasus international locations of Armenia, Georgia, and the Republic of Azerbaijan plus Russia, Turkey, and Iran). The primary summit throughout the framework of the three+3 group was held in Moscow on Dec. 11, 2021. Though Georgia didn’t attend as a consequence of its variations with Russia over Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the Georgian flag was flown exterior the Moscow summit alongside these of the 5 international locations in attendance. This gesture signaled a shared need amongst these current for a Georgian presence in future conferences.
Summit attendees made a number of efforts to resolve the border disputes between the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia, together with by holding conferences between the 2 international locations in Sochi on Nov. 26, 2021 and Brussels on March 31, 2022. Turkey and Armenia have additionally taken necessary steps towards normalizing relations, together with the appointment of Serdar Kılıç, the previous Turkish ambassador to america, and Ruben Rubinyan, the previous head of Armenia’s parliamentary committee on international relations, as particular envoys. The 2 held their first assembly in Moscow on Jan. 14, 2022 and this was adopted by a gathering between Armenian International Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and Turkish International Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu on the second Antalya Diplomacy Discussion board on March 11, 2022.
Nonetheless, vital challenges to regional integration stay. Persevering with border tensions between Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan are one. After the Second Nagorno-Karabakh Warfare, with the return of the Zangilan, Ghobadli, Lachin, and Kalbajar areas within the west and southwest of Nagorno-Karabakh to the rule of the Republic of Azerbaijan, the borders of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan in these areas returned to the Soviet-era borders after three a long time. However the existence of rural areas, pastures and water assets, mines, and roads and transit routes on each side of the border makes it troublesome and gradual to find out the boundaries between the 2 international locations. One other problem is Armenia’s opposition to the “Zangezur Hall” that can join the mainland of the Republic of Azerbaijan to the Nakhchivan exclave. The explanation for the problem is, as I’ve famous elsewhere,
“The paradox and totally different interpretations of the Armenian and Azeri sides of Article 9 of the Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire settlement on November 10, 2020. The interpretation and reasoning of the Azeri [side] is a ‘broad and most interpretation’ and on this regard, Baku believes that the that means of ‘communication between the western areas of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic’ is a hall and [a] communication hall known as ‘Zangezur’ is talked about. Then again, the Armenian aspect has a ‘slim and minimal interpretation’ on this regard and Yerevan believes that the phrase ‘hall’ seems solely within the third clause of the ceasefire settlement for the entry of the Nagorno-Karabakh area to Armenia by way of the ‘Lachin hall.’”
These challenges led to the failure of efforts to revive the Soviet-era railway within the South Caucasus, widespread opposition to the engagement of Nikol Pashinyan’s authorities in Armenia-Republic of Azerbaijan peace talks, and the still-unrealized normalization of Armenia-Turkey relations. Russia’s battle with Ukraine has solely difficult issues additional, creating 4 main new challenges.
The primary problem is Georgia’s full and specific assist for Ukraine within the battle, which has pushed Georgia into the Western camp and thus deepened the rifts between Tbilisi and Moscow. Certainly, in mid-Might the president of the breakaway state of South Ossetia, Anatoly Bibilov, proposed holding a referendum on accession to Russia on July 17, 2022. He scrapped the concept a number of weeks later as a result of “uncertainty of the authorized penalties of the difficulty.” Have been the referendum to occur, the dynamics of Russia’s annexation of Crimea could be repeated in South Ossetia, and it isn’t troublesome to think about that this similar sample might play out in Abkhazia too. These circumstances have dimmed the prospects for Georgia’s participation within the 3+3 format.
The second problem is that the Ukraine battle has shifted Russia’s army focus away from the Caucasus, the place it has historically acted as a “safety guarantor” for unrecognized states, resembling Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia’s army marketing campaign in Ukraine has not gone to plan. Moscow’s losses on the battlefield have prompted it to redeploy Russian forces stationed in South Ossetia and Abkhazia in addition to usher in native troops from South Ossetia. In the meantime, the Nagorno-Karabakh area has seen a number of army clashes for the reason that begin of the Ukraine battle, together with within the villages of Khramort and Nakhichanik within the Askeran area and Khnushinak and Karmir Shuka within the Martuni area on March 9, 2022. Some specialists, particularly Armenian ones, attribute this to the Ukraine battle. Yerevan-based analyst Tigran Grigoryan is of this opinion, writing, “Azerbaijan is utilizing the small window of alternative created by the battle in Ukraine to succeed in some tactical objectives on the bottom. Baku can be testing Russia’s crimson strains and limitations in Nagorno-Karabakh on this new geopolitical actuality. Azerbaijan will certainly carry on attempting to additional exploit Moscow’s weaknesses if the Russian battle effort in Ukraine lasts for too lengthy.”
As Alexa Fults and Paul Stronski have famous,
“Many Armenians view these incursions as makes an attempt by Baku to achieve as a lot territory and leverage as doable to power Yerevan into suing for peace on less-than-favorable phrases. It might be working. The EU and Russia have sponsored a flurry of diplomatic initiatives to defuse the stress, however Russia’s invasion of Ukraine now complicates these efforts to handle the battle collectively, and Baku has seized this chance to introduce a five-point proposal for a complete peace. This plan contains mutual recognition of every state’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual renunciation of any future territorial claims, delimitation and demarcation of the border, the institution of diplomatic relations, and the opening of regional transportation hyperlinks. Lacking from the proposal is a long-standing Armenian demand: an settlement and mechanism for figuring out the longer term standing of Nagorno-Karabakh and its Armenian inhabitants.”
The Republic of Azerbaijan, nevertheless, rejects Armenia’s enchantment and considers the ethnic Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh to be Azerbaijani residents.
In different phrase, Baku sees the difficulty of Nagorno-Karabakh as non-negotiable. The Republic of Azerbaijan even opposes using the time period “Nagorno-Karabakh,” which it deems a vestige of Soviet-era political geography. As an alternative, Baku formally makes use of solely “Karabakh” to designate this political unit of the Republic of Azerbaijan. All of this, particularly the discount of Russia’s army deal with the South Caucasus for the reason that begin of the Ukraine battle, has raised considerations in regards to the elevated threat of battle in South Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh. Such circumstances are certain to negatively influence the prospects for regional cooperation within the Caucasus, particularly the three+3 mannequin.
The third problem is the harm accomplished to Russia’s economic system and smooth energy by the Ukraine battle. It’s clear that no regional challenge within the Caucasus will succeed with out Moscow’s cooperation and participation. Traditionally, Russia’s buy-in (or lack thereof) has performed an necessary function within the success (or failure) of regional cooperation initiatives. For instance, its cooperation performed an necessary function in forming the three+3 mannequin proposed by Iran and Turkey after the Second Nagorno-Karabakh Warfare and the primary assembly of the three+3 representatives came about in Moscow. However the Ukraine battle has drained Russia of its political and financial energy, in addition to its smooth energy, throughout the globe. Western sanctions threaten to recreate the circumstances that resulted within the “Ruble Disaster of 1998,” when Russia skilled a sovereign debt default, a large devaluation of the ruble, and a banking disaster. The debilitation of Russia at the moment resulted in a terrific divergence throughout the Commonwealth of Unbiased States, main the Republic of Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, and Georgia to withdraw from the Collective Safety Treaty (CSTO) in 1999. These three international locations by no means returned to the CSTO, the crown jewel of Russia’s protection pacts. Thus, Russia’s political, financial, and army decline within the Caucasus will allow different powers to play a rising function within the area, particularly Turkey. Russia, nevertheless, continues its efforts to exhibit that the Ukraine battle has no bearing on its place within the Caucasus. To this finish, the international ministers of Armenia, the Republic of Azerbaijan, and Russia met within the Tajik capital of Dushanbe on Might 13, 2022 to debate the normalization of relations between Yerevan and Baku. Armenian International Minister Mirzoyan additionally introduced that Russian President Vladimir Putin will make a state go to to Armenia by the tip of the 12 months.
Regardless of Russia’s makes an attempt at harm management, the Ukraine battle appears more likely to have a detrimental long-term influence on its political, financial, and army energy. In consequence, will probably be troublesome for Moscow to advance its plans and objectives within the Caucasus, together with throughout the framework of the three+3 mannequin. Because the formation of the three+3 mirrored a brand new steadiness of energy between Russia and Turkey after the Second Nagorno-Karabakh Warfare, Russia’s decline and Turkey’s rise within the Caucasus might tempt Ankara to jettison the three+3 mannequin and strengthen bilateral cooperation with the Republic of Azerbaijan alone. As well as, the Ukraine battle has intensified the rivalry pitting the Republic of Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey towards Russia. Efforts to strengthen the “Center Hall” or the Trans-Caspian Worldwide Transport Route — which begins from Southeast Asia and China after which runs by way of Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, the Republic of Azerbaijan, Georgia, and additional to European international locations — and cement Baku’s place as a substitute fuel provider for Europe gas trilateral cooperation between the Republic of Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey, leaving Russia and Iran out within the chilly. These developments can solely weaken the three+3 mannequin within the South Caucasus.
The fourth problem is the unfold of political protests in Armenia and the nation’s unsure political future. Protests towards the Pashinyan authorities have been happening for the previous two years, and the battle in Ukraine has solely intensified them inside Armenia, within the Armenian-controlled Nagorno-Karabakh area, and among the many Armenian diaspora. Many political events and teams against the Pashinyan authorities consider that the Republic of Azerbaijan is in search of to reap the benefits of Russia’s partial eclipse within the Caucasus to say full sovereignty over the Nagorno-Karabakh area. For such observers the indicators of Baku’s intentions are throughout them: within the Republic of Azerbaijan’s choice to chop off fuel to the Nagorno-Karabakh area, defined away by Baku as a short lived technical downside; in army clashes within the villages of Khramort and Nakhichanik within the Askeran area and Khnushinak and Karmir Shuka within the Martuni area; and within the presentation of the five-article peace plan. Opposition events and teams in Armenia accuse the Pashinyan authorities of dishonesty and an absence of transparency within the negotiation course of with the Republic of Azerbaijan and Turkey. For that reason, opposition political events such because the Republican Celebration, Armenian Nationwide Motion, Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun), in addition to a coalition of three former Armenian presidents (Leon Ter-Petrosyan, Robert Kocharyan, and Serge Sargsyan) are forming a united entrance towards Pashinyan. Such unity is unprecedented in Armenia’s latest political historical past. In regard to protests in Armenia, Azerbaijani International Minister Jeyhun Bayramov stated he believes they lack “broad public assist,” including that, “the quantity of people that take part doesn’t exceed six or seven thousand individuals.” However in actuality, the protests in Armenia are a power to be reckoned with. The Republic of Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Russia are all properly conscious that the autumn of the Pashinyan authorities may carry to energy somebody, like former President Kocharyan, who strongly opposes the Nagorno-Karabakh cease-fire settlement, peace talks between Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan, and normalization of relations between Armenia and Turkey. The latest choice by the Azerbaijani authorities to assemble a 55-km freeway together with railway hyperlinks between Zangilan and Nakhchivan by way of Iran might be interpreted as an indication of this concern. This route would function a substitute for the Zangezur Hall throughout southern Armenia within the occasion that Armenia-Republic of Azerbaijan relations bitter. For now it has but to be constructed, though not for lack of effort by the Azerbaijani authorities.
Over the previous three a long time, inside divisions within the Caucasus area between Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan, in addition to divisions between Armenia, Turkey, and Georgia on one aspect and Russia on the opposite, have hindered regional cooperation. The battle in Ukraine, with its trans-regional fallout, appears to have nipped within the bud nascent tendencies in regional cooperation, particularly these adopting the three+3 mannequin. Georgia’s prospects for membership within the 3+3 platform have vastly receded, and in follow this mannequin has been decreased to “3+2.” The political state of affairs in Armenia stays unsure and unstable, and if nationalists have been to win energy this may seal the destiny of even the three+2 mannequin. In the meantime, Russia’s army deal with the Ukraine battle, mixed with the weakening of its economic system and smooth energy because of intensive Western sanctions, additionally undermines the three+3 cooperation mannequin. To all this ought to be added intensifying competitors within the fields of transit and power. The Republic of Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey have cooperated in these areas, to the exclusion of Russia and Iran. With all this in thoughts, we should face the truth that the trail to regional cooperation within the Caucasus guarantees to be a bumpy one.
Dr. Vali Kaleji is an knowledgeable in regional research, Central Asia, and Caucasian research based mostly in Tehran, Iran. He has revealed quite a few articles on Eurasian points with the Jamestown Basis’s Eurasia Day by day Monitor, the American International Coverage Council’s Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, and the Valdai Membership. He will be reached at vali.kaleji@gmail.com. The views expressed on this piece are his personal.
Photograph by FRANCOIS WALSCHAERTS/AFP through Getty Photographs
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